What the Current U.S.-Iran Tensions Could Mean for Asset Allocation: Lessons from Past Conflicts

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The opening days of 2020 saw the news dominated by coverage of the U.S. attack on Iranian Major General Qasem Suleimani, with markets focused on the attack’s implications and Iran’s response. As of writing, U.S.-Iran hostilities appear to have stabilized for the time being, with Iran facing domestic protests following its admission that it mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner.

In light of these circumstances, we look to prior instances of U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and subsequent performance across U.S. equities, crude oil, gold, 10-year yields, and the U.S. dollar. Specifically, we analyze the days following the 1986 U.S. bombing of Libya, the 1990 inception of the First Iraq War (Gulf War), and the 2003 American invasion of Iraq. Our findings are summarized in the table below.

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